At first, the coup in Niger resembled others which have roiled West Africa in recent times. On July 26, troopers detained Niger’s president at his dwelling within the capital, Niamey. Hours later, they declared that they’d seized energy. Foreign powers condemned the putsch however did nothing.
Then the coup took a distinct course.
The United States and France threatened to minimize ties with Niger, endangering lots of of tens of millions of {dollars} in assist. The deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum, although detained, was ready to converse with world leaders, obtain visitors and submit defiant messages on social media.
Neighboring nations threatened to go to struggle — some to scuttle the coup, and others to guarantee its success.
The Economic Community of West African States, a regional bloc of nations generally known as ECOWAS, issued an ultimatum to the junta on July 30: Restore Mr. Bazoum to energy inside one week or face the implications, together with doable army motion.
Soon after, the neighboring nations of Mali and Burkina Faso leaped to the junta’s protection, declaring that they might think about any overseas transfer towards Niger as a “declaration of war” towards them, too. (Guinea additionally supported Niger’s army, however with out the specter of power.)
What set off final week’s coup stays unclear. But in distinction with different current takeovers in West Africa, which have been largely greeted with shrugs, Niger’s coup has grow to be a pink line for a lot of — together with Western allies.
Thousands of American and French troops are stationed in Niger to assist battle a surge in Islamist assaults throughout the area. That army cooperation is now suspended, because the United States and France exert pressure on the junta to restore democracy. European nations started evacuating their residents on Tuesday; a day later, the United States ordered a partial evacuation of its embassy.
Britain advised “against all travel to the whole country.”
The turmoil and saber-rattling has uncovered deep divisions in West Africa. The coup leaders insist they’re going nowhere. With worries that the disaster might spill over right into a regional struggle, the stakes are quickly rising.
Why does Niger matter?
If the coup succeeds, Niger would be the final domino to fall in an unbroken line of nations stretching throughout Africa, from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, which can be dominated by army juntas.
Democratically elected leaders are falling like bowling pins: Since 2020, three of Niger’s neighbors — Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea — have skilled 5 coups.
Niger, although, appeared to be totally different.
Despite an extended historical past of coups, the election of Mr. Bazoum as president in 2021 raised hopes that Niger was on a democratic path. An avowed modernizer, Mr. Bazoum promoted girls’ schooling, sought to scale back Niger’s birthrate, the best on the earth, and oversaw a powerful financial revival: After years of stagnation, Niger’s financial system had been forecast to develop 7 % this 12 months.
Western nations, noticed Mr. Bazoum as a pleasant determine in a tough neighborhood. Since mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner non-public army firm, the spearhead of the Kremlin’s current push into components of Africa, have been deployed to Mali final 12 months, the United States and France have relied extra closely on Mr. Bazoum.
About 1,100 American troops and 1,500 French troops are based mostly in Niger, in addition to a number of drone bases. Foreign assist price $2.2 billion makes up 40 percent of Niger’s nationwide funds.
The alliance with the West helped Mr. Bazoum make Niger safer — fatalities from Islamist violence fell sharply final 12 months. But it might even have stoked tensions contained in the army, contributing to final week’s coup.
What is ECOWAS, and may it cease a coup?
West Africa’s strongest regional grouping, ECOWAS, represents 15 nations with a mixed inhabitants of about 400 million folks. Although based to bolster economies, ECOWAS has usually waded into regional conflicts.
Since 1990, its peacekeepers have intervened to assist quell rebellions, uphold cease-fires and power out dictators. The most up-to-date mission was in Gambia in 2017, the place its troopers helped cease former President Yahya Jammeh from overturning an election he had misplaced.
Some need ECOWAS to emulate that instance in Niger. The bloc’s head, President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria, says that West Africa can’t afford extra coups and that ECOWAS wants to cease being a “toothless bulldog.”
“Tinubu is taking this Niger crisis personally,” mentioned Rahmane Idrissa, a researcher on the African Studies Center of Leiden University within the Netherlands. “This was a one-coup-too-many for him, and for ECOWAS.”
On Wednesday, Nigeria’s army chief of workers, Christopher Musa, advised Radio France International that if ordered, his forces have been prepared to deploy.
Still, many doubt that ECOWAS actually desires to go to struggle over Niger. Gambia, the place the bloc final deployed, is the smallest nation on mainland Africa, with a weak military. Niger is twice the dimensions of France, and its battle-tested military has been educated by American and European particular forces.
“We will see if ECOWAS can ratchet up pressure any longer,” mentioned Cameron Hudson, an Africa analyst on the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But I suspect that their bluff has been called.”
Where is the president?
Mr. Bazoum seems to be trapped in limbo.
Typically, throughout coups, ousted leaders are pressured to flee or signal a proper resignation. Mr. Bazoum has carried out neither, as a substitute staying at dwelling to work the telephones. On Wednesday, he spoke once more with the U.S. secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, and has additionally talked to President Emmanuel Macron of France.
President Mahamat Idriss Déby of Chad visited him on Sunday and later posted a photograph of the imprisoned president on social media.
Senior Nigerien diplomats nonetheless name Mr. Bazoum their boss.
“If this coup succeeds, it will be a disaster,” Kiari Liman-Tinguiri, Niger’s ambassador to the United States, mentioned in an interview during which he referred to as for worldwide assist to reverse the takeover. “A disaster for Niger, for the region and for the world.”
Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, the self-declared coup chief, has mentioned he won’t bow to the pressure.
As the pinnacle of Niger’s Presidential Guard for 12 years, General Tchiani has gone from being Mr. Bazoum’s protector to being his jailer.
Why he took that step is unclear. But in a tv deal with on Wednesday night time, General Tchiani sounded a defiant observe, railing towards “illegal, unjust and inhuman” sanctions imposed by ECOWAS on Niger because the coup.
And he reiterated that he would by no means reinstate Mr. Bazoum.
Who advantages from the chaos?
The sight of coup supporters brandishing Russian flags in central Niamey, some chanting slogans in favor of President Vladimir V. Putin, stoked suspicions that the Kremlin had a hand within the coup.
In reality, there may be little proof to assist that concept, specialists say. But that has not prevented Russian officers from seeing Niger’s disaster as a significant alternative.
Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the Russian oligarch whose Wagner mercenary paramilitaries have been deployed to Mali, has pitched his companies to Niger’s coup leaders. On Wednesday, one traveled to Mali’s capital, Bamako, the place he met with Malian leaders and Wagner officers.
The different potential beneficiaries are the area’s Islamist militants. Since the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, militants’ assaults on civilians in these nations have soared. But in Niger, they’ve dropped — a development that many worry might now be reversed.
If the coup succeeds, “it could provide a large base, a sanctuary, to Wagner and the jihadists in the heart of West Africa,” Mr. Liman-Tinguiri, the diplomat, mentioned. “This is not another coup as usual.”
Elian Peltier contributed reporting from Dakar, Senegal.
