To liberate territory, Ukraine must smash fortified Russian defenses

They do it by hand. At night time.

“Everyone’s hands shake,” mentioned the 42-year-old commander of engineers within the 1st Tank Brigade, whom The Washington Post is figuring out solely by his name signal, Klimat, for safety causes.

Klimat mentioned this sort of mine-clearing work has been ongoing for weeks, however he declined to explain exact areas or strategies used to deactivate the mines. Once a path has been cleared, he mentioned, indicators are arrange — generally lighted, with the beams going through away from Russian positions — to point out a path ahead.

That’s simply step one. Then comes the struggle towards the Russians.

Precisely the place it would start is unattainable to know. But hypothesis has targeted closely on the Zaporizhzhia area as a result of it’s a strategic lifeline for Russia’s occupation. If Ukraine pushes south via the area, it’d be capable of reduce off the “land bridge” connecting occupied Crimea with mainland Russia.

With the Kremlin hellbent on preserving the land it has stolen in Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces have ripped it aside, reworking enormous expanses of once-sleepy agricultural fields right into a veritable fortress with webs of trenches and different obstacles that may be seen from house.

To retake territory and oust the Russians, the Ukrainians must punch via these fortifications. That requires particular training and tools in addition to cautious reconnaissance to discover a weak spot — most likely one among a variety of causes the long-awaited counteroffensive has not started but.

Serhii Matveichuk, a colonel in Ukraine’s Directorate of Engineer Troops, advised The Washington Post that Russia had created a “massive system of engineering barriers” that pose a “serious obstacle to the mobility of troops.”

The goal of Russia’s monumental fortification undertaking is to gradual a possible assault and to channel any Ukrainian forces that break via right into a slim space. This would permit Russia’s reserves to regroup and provides its artillery time to strike the attackers, doubtlessly ending the counteroffensive earlier than it actually begins.

If it really works, it may very well be a massacre. “It’s a lot like World War I,” mentioned Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps officer and protection professional with the Center for Strategic & International Studies, evaluating it to the bloody stalemate of trench warfare in that battle over a century in the past. “If the Russians fight hard, it’ll be tough to break through.”

Ukrainian officers declined to debate the specifics of any plan to push via Russian fortifications, terrified of releasing operational data that may very well be utilized by Russia. Matveichuk and different Ukrainian officers spoke to The Post provided that their areas not be revealed.

Ukrainian engineers and sappers are already at work, in some circumstances utilizing new tools designed to pierce these kinds of defenses, together with specifically modified autos primarily based on the famed Leopard 2 German battle tank.

But some analysts say that whereas Kyiv’s Western backers have targeted on missiles, armored autos and ammunition, they haven’t dedicated the correct assist to interrupt via Russia’s defenses. Matveichuk mentioned it was “problematic” that the Ukrainian military was wanting engineering tanks and different such instruments.

According to Ukrainian troopers, Russia lays its mines in a sample: one line of antitank mines, a line of antipersonnel traces alongside booby traps, after which one other line of antitank mines. Drones can be utilized to identify the antitank mines, troopers say, however antipersonnel mines are tougher to search out.

Once the Ukrainians are via their very own traces and in potential sight of Russian forces, breaking via these minefields usually requires much less stealth and extra velocity.

In concept, artillery hearth can explode mines from afar. But artillery rounds are in restricted provide, and Ukrainian troopers mentioned it was unattainable to make certain that all of the mines in an space are destroyed.

Instead, trendy militaries use specifically designed tools like mechanized mine clearers, engineering tanks and line fees, that are gadgets that use explosives linked to a line to clear a delegated space of mines.

Ukraine has its personal mine clearers, such because the UR-77 Meteorit, a Soviet-designed car that makes use of the identical chassis because the previous 2S1 howitzer. This closely armored car makes use of built-in line fees to clear areas as much as 300 toes forward of it. It can be utilized by the Russian military.

Western nations have additionally despatched some trendy engineering tanks, together with Leopard 2R mine-clearing tanks provided by Finland, that may plow via minefields. These autos, developed by Germany, are primarily based on the chassis of the well-known battle tank and use closely armored mine plows to detonate the mines of their path.

Matveichuk, in response to written questions, declined to debate what equipment could be utilized in a counteroffensive as a result of disclosures may end in “the enemy developing countermeasures.” However, he famous that heavy engineering tanks just like the Leopard 2R have been notably helpful as they can’t solely clear mines and likewise push via different obstacles like fences and lumps.

But the best choice for this work — the M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle, primarily based on the chassis of the American-made M1 Abrams battle tank — is just not out there to Ukraine, Matveichuk mentioned. Washington has been urged to ship them however has not achieved so.

“Despite the significant amount of weapons provided to Ukraine to repel the aggressor’s attack, the problematic issue is the provision of engineering units with engineering tanks” and different applied sciences, Matveichuk wrote.

The United States has repeatedly listed “mine clearing equipment” in its navy support for Ukraine, with out offering particulars. Open-source weapons trackers have noticed the M58 Mine Clearing Line Charge, also called the MICLIC, within the nation.

Steve Danner, a former U.S. Army engineer who now works as an infrastructure advisor, mentioned different tools may very well be despatched: He pointed to a sort of U.S.-owned armored digger, the Israeli-developed IDF Caterpillar D9. They have been utilized in Iraq however at the moment are “just rusting away” in storage in Kuwait, he mentioned.

“I’m really nervous that Ukraine is not equipped to deal with these extensive obstacles,” Danner mentioned.

Ukrainian troopers are all too conscious that an offensive this 12 months received’t be so simple as the profitable counterattacks towards Russian forces final fall.

“The enemy is learning from their mistakes,” mentioned Yuri, a 29-year-old unit commander with the first Tank Brigade who offered solely his first title for safety causes. “They’re better prepared.”

For Russia, the heavy, soiled work of fortification in Zaporizhzhia grew to become pressing after Ukraine pushed Moscow’s troops from the northern Kharkiv area and compelled them to retreat east throughout the Dnieper River within the southern Kherson area.

Though the trenches, ditches, minefields and fences are unfold all throughout occupied Ukraine now, Zaporizhzhia has seen the heaviest of the work.

Brady Africk, an open supply analyst who works for the American Enterprise Institute, mentioned that the heavy fortification mirrored the “relatively flat topography which provides fewer natural obstacles than are present in occupied areas of eastern Ukraine” or that the Dnieper River gives in Kherson.

The problem for Russia is making an attempt to guess the place alongside the 600-mile-long entrance Ukraine will mount its assaults, however satellite tv for pc imagery reveals Russia is acutely conscious that Zaporizhzhia may very well be a spotlight. Lines of fortification have been constructed not solely round Melitopol, a significant metropolis now serving as a Russian logistical hub within the south, but in addition alongside the roads to Crimea and on the peninsula itself.

If Ukrainian forces can discover a path via the minefields, they’ll then want to make use of a technique of mixed arms to rapidly break via.

Trenches must be taken rapidly by infantry with the assist of artillery, earlier than hiding Russian troopers can use the dugouts to fireside antitank missiles, Cancian mentioned. Ukrainian tanks may then push ahead together with engineering equipment, together with bridging autos that permit others to go over ditches and small rivers.

These models must transfer quick. Experts mentioned even only one small breach within the enemy’s fortifications must be exploited with out hesitation. With Russian defenses stretched alongside the entrance, a quick Ukrainian assault may overwhelm them.

Nine Ukrainian brigades have been training overseas in latest months. Cancian mentioned a number of of them will most likely act as “tip of the spear” within the assault.

“Then they can get into the ‘green fields beyond,’ as they say,” mentioned Cancian, referring to the elusive navy prize in World War I trench warfare.

Experts say that Russia can have no less than one line of reserves that may rush to the entrance to attempt to reduce off a Ukrainian advance. They could nicely have extra.

“There’s a lot around Melitopol,” mentioned James Rand, an analyst with the personal intelligence firm Janes. “The Russians clearly think that the Ukrainians are going to come south.”

Rand added that new weapons expertise just like the U.S.-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, and the newer Storm Shadow long-range missile system offered by Britain will affect the place Russia positions its reserves.

“The Russians are going to have to think about what they move back,” mentioned Rand, including that reserves may show to be a “big juicy target” for Storm Shadows, which have a spread of as much as 180 miles — placing Melitopol inside attain.

If they will push via, Ukraine must as soon as once more lay defenses, and the sappers shall be again at work, this time laying mines. Ukraine has used previous Soviet-developed mines, together with the TM-62 antitank mine.

“We put a blanket on the mines so they don’t get cold,” Klimat, the engineers commander, joked as he confirmed off the mines, which have been saved in an previous GMZ-3 minelayer close by.

When they lay the mines, they’ll preserve information, he added, in case they should discover a means via once more.